Russia’s Strategic Pause: Putin Pledges 12 Months of Nuclear Limits

Russian President Vladimir Putin announced a strategic pause in potential nuclear expansion, pledging to voluntarily observe the limits of the now-defunct New START treaty for twelve months. This unilateral declaration is being framed as an effort to ensure global predictability and prevent an arms race from spiraling out of control.
During a televised session of his Security Council, Putin explained the rationale behind the move. “To avoid provoking a further strategic arms race… we believe it is justified to try to maintain the status quo,” he stated. This means Russia will keep its deployed nuclear warheads at or below 1,550 and its deployed strategic launchers at 700.
However, this pause is conditional. Putin made it clear that Moscow’s policy hinges on Washington’s behavior. He expects the United States to demonstrate equivalent restraint, warning that Russia’s commitment will only hold if the U.S. does not take actions that “undermine or disrupt the existing balance of deterrence.”
The Russian government is also portraying this as a potential confidence-building measure. Putin suggested that this step could contribute significantly to creating an atmosphere where serious strategic talks with the U.S. can resume. It is an invitation to de-escalate and return to the negotiating table, but on Moscow’s terms.
The temporary nature of the commitment is key. Putin explicitly stated that after this one-year period, Russia will re-evaluate its stance based on a fresh “analysis of the situation.” This creates a window for diplomacy but also preserves Russia’s right to change its nuclear posture in the future.