Israel’s New Diplomatic Calculus: Opportunity After Assad’s Ousting

Israel’s new diplomatic calculus centers on the opportunity presented by Bashar al-Assad’s ousting in Syria, with Foreign Minister Gideon Saar expressing interest in formalizing ties with both Syria and Lebanon. Saar stated on Monday that Israel perceives Iran as weakened after this month’s 12-day war, creating a strategic window for expanding its “circle of peace” in the turbulent Middle East.
A key condition from Israel is the non-negotiable status of the Golan Heights, which it annexed in 1981 after capturing it from Syria in 1967. This stance is a major point of contention, as the international community widely regards the Golan as occupied Syrian land, despite President Donald Trump’s recognition of Israeli sovereignty.
This diplomatic push builds on the momentum of the 2020 Abraham Accords, which saw the United Arab Emirates, Bahrain, and Morocco establish formal ties with Israel. While these agreements marked a new era of regional diplomacy, they were widely unpopular among Arab populations, suggesting that future normalization efforts will face considerable public and political challenges.
However, a senior Syrian official has firmly linked any normalization to the 2002 Arab Peace Initiative, which calls for Israeli withdrawal from all occupied territories and the establishment of an independent Palestinian state. Israel’s Foreign Minister, however, countered that conditioning normalization on Palestinian statehood is “not constructive” and a security threat, exposing a fundamental ideological divide that poses a major hurdle to any comprehensive peace.