The Hard Reality: BP Says Net-Zero 2050 Is ‘Unlikely’ Amid Higher Oil Demand

The global commitment to achieving net-zero emissions by 2050 faces a critical failure point, according to the latest annual outlook from energy giant BP. The company has substantially raised its long-term forecasts for oil and gas demand, a stark acknowledgment that the world is currently not transitioning fast enough to meet its climate targets. This revised trajectory signals a significant slowdown in the pivot toward clean energy.
BP’s new projections for oil consumption in 2050 have been adjusted upward by 8%, now expected to reach 83 million barrels per day (b/d), up from the previous estimate of 77 million b/d. The demand for natural gas is also forecast to remain stubbornly high, projected at 4,806 billion cubic meters annually in 2050. Furthermore, BP has delayed the expected date of peak oil demand by five years, now predicting a peak of 103 million b/d in 2030, reinforcing the enduring dominance of fossil fuels.
A major catalyst for this slow pace is the renewed focus on national energy security, driven by geopolitical instability. BP’s chief economist points to the intensifying effects of the war in Ukraine, Middle East conflicts, and rising trade tariffs. This security-first mandate could potentially accelerate some nations towards becoming ‘electrostates’ powered by domestic low-carbon sources. However, the report equally warns of the risk that countries will simply favor domestically produced fossil fuels over imported alternatives, slowing the overall energy transition.
The gap between current reality and climate necessity is immense. BP calculates that to hit the 2050 net-zero target, oil demand must see a radical and immediate decline, dropping to approximately 35 million b/d by that date. The consequences of maintaining the current slow path are severe: BP’s modeling shows cumulative carbon emissions are set to breach the critical 2∘C carbon budget limit by the early 2040s, significantly increasing the future economic and social costs of climate mitigation.
Despite the rapid expansion of renewable energy capacity, oil is forecast to remain the single largest source of primary global energy supply for most of the next two decades, holding a 30% share in 2035. While renewables are growing from 10% to 15% of the primary energy supply by 2035, they are not expected to surpass oil’s market share until the late 2040s. This sluggish turnover rate occurs as BP itself faces scrutiny, having undertaken a “fundamental reset” to scale up oil and gas production amidst investor pressure over its share price.